Women and children of Gaza are killed less frequently as war’s toll rises, AP data analysis finds

The proportion of Palestinian women and children being killed in the Israel-Hamas war appears to have declined sharply, an Associated Press analysis of Gaza Health Ministry data has found, a trend that both coincides with Israel’s changing battlefield tactics and contradicts the ministry’s own public statements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The trend is significant because the death rate for women and children is the best available proxy for civilian casualties in one of the 21st century’s most destructive conflicts. In October, when the war began, it was above 60%. For the month of April, it was below 40%. Yet the shift went unnoticed for months by the U.N. and much of the media, and the Hamas-linked Health Ministry has made no effort to set the record straight.

Israel faces heavy international criticism over unprecedented levels of civilian casualties in Gaza and questions about whether it has done enough to prevent them in an 8-month-old war that shows no sign of ending. Two recent airstrikes in Gaza killed dozens of civilians.

FILE – Mourners carry the body of Samer Rumaneh, draped in a Palestinian flag, who was killed in an Israeli military raid, during his funeral in the West Bank city of Nablus, on May 12, 2024. An AP analysis of Gaza Health Ministry data finds the proportion of Palestinian women and children being killed in the Israel-Hamas war appears to have declined sharply. Israel faces heavy international criticism over unprecedented levels of civilian casualties in Gaza. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)
FILE – Mourners carry the body of Samer Rumaneh, draped in a Palestinian flag, who was killed in an Israeli military raid, during his funeral in the West Bank city of Nablus, on May 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

The AP analysis highlights facts that have been overlooked and could help inform the public debate, said Gabriel Epstein, a research assistant at the Washington Institute for Near East policy who has also studied the Health Ministry data.

The declining impact on women and children — as well as a drop in the overall death rate — are “definitely due to a change in the way the IDF is acting right now,” Epstein said, using an acronym for the Israeli army. “That’s an easy conclusion, but I don’t think it’s been made enough.”

Omar Shakir, the Israel and Palestine director for Human Rights Watch, said his group has always found the Health Ministry’s numbers to be “generally reliable” because it has direct access to hospitals and morgues.

Whatever the reason for fewer women and child being killed, Shakir said, in the grand scheme, the trend pales when compared with the war’s overall devastation. “The death toll may be an undercount,” he added, because many bodies are still under rubble and the war has made it difficult for the Health Ministry to comprehensively gather data.

FILE – Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of a residential building destroyed in an Israeli airstrike, in Rafah southern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 20, 2023. An AP analysis of Gaza Health Ministry data finds the proportion of Palestinian women and children being killed in the Israel-Hamas war appears to have declined sharply. Israel faces heavy international criticism over unprecedented levels of civilian casualties in Gaza. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
How AP analyzed Gaza Health Ministry’s death toll data
FILE – Spain’s Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares Bueno addresses a media conference prior to talks on the Middle East in Brussels, on May 27, 2024. Spain says it will ask a United Nations court for permission to join South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. Spain is the first European country to take the step after South Africa filed its case with the International Court of Justice late last year. It alleged that Israel was breaching the genocide convention in its military assault that has laid waste to large swaths of Gaza. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert, File)
Spain applies to join South Africa’s case at top UN court accusing Israel of genocide
Palestinians look at the aftermath of the Israeli strike on a U.N.-run school that killed dozens of people in the Nusseirat refugee camp in the Gaza Strip, Thursday, June 6, 2024. The Israeli military said that Hamas militants were operating from within the school. (AP Photo/Ismael Abu Dayyah)
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AS THE WAR EVOLVES, A SHIFT OCCURS
When Israel first responded to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, which killed some 1,200 people, it launched an intense aerial bombardment on the densely populated Gaza Strip. Israel said its goal was to destroy Hamas positions, and the barrage cleared the way for tens of thousands of ground troops, backed by tanks and artillery.

The Gaza death toll rose quickly and by the end of October women and people 17 and younger accounted for 64% of the 6,745 killed who were fully identified by the Health Ministry.

After marching across most of Gaza and saying it had achieved many key objectives, Israel then began withdrawing most of its ground forces. It reduced the frequency of aerial bombings and has focused in recent months on smaller drone strikes and limited ground operations. yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus yus

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