Why Israel-Hezbollah tensions risk boiling over now

Israel and the Lebanese Iran-backed Islamist group Hezbollah have been ramping up cross-border attacks after months of low-intensity fighting, prompting the Israeli military to warn that it is prepared to launch a large-scale attack on its northern border.

With both sides trading fire for more than eight months, experts say Israel feels it can no longer ignore its northern front or delay taking action there. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A full-blown war appears to have become more likely – even if both sides have no desire for one, analysts believe.

Israel launched a devastating invasion of Lebanon in 1982, sending tanks all the way to the capital Beirut, after coming under attack from Palestinian militants in the country. It then occupied southern Lebanon for 22 years until it was driven out by Hezbollah, which emerged from the rubble of the Israeli invasion.

Hezbollah is an Iran-backed Lebanese movement with one of the region’s most powerful paramilitary forces. The “resistance” group is tasked with confronting Israel, which Beirut classifies as an enemy state. Much of the Western world has designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

Since then, the two sides have traded fire sporadically, but tensions boiled over in 2006 when Israel went to war in southern Lebanon again after Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. More than 1,000 Lebanese were killed in that conflict, mostly civilians, as well as 49 Israeli civilians and 121 soldiers. Two years later, Hezbollah returned the remains of the kidnapped soldiers in exchange for the release of Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, as well as the bodies of militants Israel was holding.

Israeli armored personnel carriers are positioned near a mosque on the outskirts of the Lebanese capital of Beirut on June 16, 1982.
Israeli armored personnel carriers are positioned near a mosque on the outskirts of the Lebanese capital of Beirut on June 16, 1982. Rina Castelnuovo/AP
The latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah started after Hamas led an attack on Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250, according to Israeli authorities. That prompted Israel to go to war with Hamas in Gaza, during which it has levelled much of the territory and killed more than 37,000 Palestinians. Hezbollah has said its current round of fighting with Israel is to support the Palestinians in Gaza.

The military capability of the Lebanese group has grown since 2006, when it relied largely on inaccurate Soviet-era Katyusha rockets. Today, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah says his group boasts more than 100,000 fighters and reservists. The group is also believed to possess 150,000 rockets that could overwhelm Israel’s defenses if an all-out war breaks out.

Why are tensions flaring up now?
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has been gradually intensifying since October 7, said Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. It’s a “slow-motion escalation” that “inches upwards,” he said.

But both sides have come closer to war of late as clashes across the border have grown in number and scale. “There is clearly an escalation,” said Wimmen, particularly in terms of deaths on each side of the border and the type of weaponry Hezbollah has been deploying.

Israel killed one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders, Talib Sami Abdulla, in a strike on southern Lebanon this week. The IDF said the commander was responsible for multiple attacks against Israeli civilians over several years. In retaliation, Hezbollah launched more than 200 rockets toward Israel on Wednesday and a significant but smaller barrage on Thursday.

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